It's Going To Be A Busy Week

The Ticker EDU Is Preparing To Take Flight

Last week proved to me why those who day, scalp or swing trade for a living often line up a second job between June and September. There’s lots of baristas and lifeguards at work checking quotes while brewing you a cup or saving your life. It is what it is. For me it’s a time to plan for The Ticker EDU’s autumn rollout, all because of you. So as I have done in the past I want to say thank you. you’ve made a young 68-year old happy to be doing what I’m doing and stay tuned; listening to you has provided a framework to build from and that’s exactly what’s going to taking place. Now if any of you know how to create a few more hours in each day let me know.

Well, last week was a snooze week or at least what was observed was more like “taking a nap” than not. Reading between the lines however suggests, as spoken of yesterday, it is a period of calm before the storm. The news events of this week, and there’s many will add a few days of short term reaction to the mix so maybe those who took second jobs should “call in sick” a couple days this week but don’t give up your summer job, it is still summer. Besides like Keith B., a new The Ticker signup, I bet you make a great cup of coffee; hey Keith, I’ll take a “venti black double cup”.

Tuesday kicks off a busy week with the Fed beginning its infamous two-day meeting along with a few inflation related reports from Europe and the United States hitting a few newswires. The Fed will either pause or go 1/4 higher Wednesday after Producer Prices are announced. I’m mote interested in what they say rather than what they do. Regardless it will be a good day to react and if consistent with recent “reporting days” it will go one direction before reverting in the opposite direction. Algorithmic activity is becoming more and more predictive so patterns of this nature are becoming clearer. I will be watching Chinese industrial production and retail reports that come later in the day as China, thought to be the perpetrator of the COVID pandemic, has become a victim of it. Inflation is certainly not a good thing for economies, especially when it ramps and becomes embedded but is it time to start worrying about its alternative?

Deflation is far worse and drives tragic events last seen in the 1930s when The Great Depression took hold. History tends to cycle itself through regular patterns. Are we due for an event of this nature perhaps? Were the “roaring teens “of the recent few years reminiscent of the “roaring 20s” of days gone by? Perhaps, perhaps not but it’s a good thing to keep your eyes on. China’s a big enough economy to affect the world. I don’t want to see an expanded period of price decreases accompanied by decreases in retail sales. That means people expect prices to go lower and that’s what deflation is all about. It’s not good for any entity, especially those corporations that are subject to reporting quarterly earnings.

The ECB reveals it’s rate decision on Thursday but more importantly the first round of the U.S. Open, being held in Los Angeles, tees off and runs through Sunday. From the age of 6, I learned how to play golf on a course in the “Burgh called The Oakmont Country Club. The rest of the world took a break when the Open was held there. I do remember Johnny Miller’s “63” in 1973 as he beat both Nicklaus and Palmer so for me, Thursday through Sunday is a “real” holiday ending with a Father’s Day celebration. Hi Dad, miss you.

Jobless claims and retail sales will also be reported on Thursday but the event I’ll have my eyes on occurs later in the day on Thursday when the BoJ issues its latest decision on rates. Ueda is going to raise rates at some point and has the ammunition to do so as inflation is increasing and the Nikkei is hitting price levels not seen in more than thirty years. It might be premature but like when the Fed announces, it’s the words he uses to define the action taken that will speak much more loudly than the actual rate decision itself. Release of the European Core CPI number brings the week’s reporting to a close but no surprises are really expected there. While tempered, inflation’s still far too high.

So that’s about it for this week unless of course you’re building out The Ticker EDU; that’s exactly what I’m doing. Let me tell you a little bit about where it’s heading.

When The Ticker EDU kicked off on April 1st I knew it wasn’t just a practical joke. A mentor of mine for the last forty-five years asked me a very important question, “who are you writing for”? In addressing his question I once again have to “take my hat” off to all of you who have provided me direction with your commentary and feedback. In reviewing those who have signed up we find two distinct distributions; (1) those who just enjoy reading what’s being presented and (2) those who are truly using it to learn how to become the best investors and traders they can possibly be. Happy to oblige.

With that in mind The Trader EDU is embarking on a pathway that will combine both Substack and Udemy. On Substack, what you have become accustomed to so far with The Ticker daily posts, will be enhanced with The Ticker Thoughts when appropriate, Many of you ask what I’m investing in, sometimes trading and more, why I am taking that action. Remember, I’m a “nighttime warrior”, raising 37 cats in my lifetime has an effect, so often these “thoughts” may appear in the middle of your night. Additionally, I will not be taking actual positions. I find it very offensive when people post entering a position then tell the world. They are essentially “front running”; I’m not interested in your “piling on” after I’ve first positioned myself. No, I’m more interested in you becoming the best damn investor or trader that you can be so I’ll just post what I’m thinking about and let you make your own decision.

When it comes to developing then offering courses on Udemy, given I’ve done this for years, I’m putting together beginner, intermediate and advanced courses that’ll teach you everything from equities to bonds, ETFs to options, futures and more with a bend concentrating on what’s happening “between your ears”. The construction of trading and investment plans, exactly how someone like me, a macroeconomic, geopolitical ‘position trader” operates as well as advanced courses on futures hedging and options are currently in the pipeline. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Learning how illustrate then deliver these courses is new to me so please be patient, please and thanks. Like I said and unlike Shakespeare’s quote, “this is not my summer of discontent”, this is my time to put something together that gives back to you my 55+ years of experience. I thank all of you for your continued support in advance and for your regular commentary and guidance. Now back to being the “grill master” as we start hitting 100+ degrees down here in Texas; the kitchen is officially off limits

I’m just a young 68 years old; my Dad became a broker when I was 13. It’s time for me to ‘give back’ to all of you what’s in my head. It’s not always pretty but it’s based on history . . . and history, unchecked, repeats itself as you are witnessing.

Everyone learns at their own pace. If you pick everything up the first time through, great but if not email me at david@thetickeredu.com so we can further help. Again, let me know what you want to learn, I’m all ears.

“We Didn’t Start The Fire”, it’s been inside of me for years. I was fortunate to be open and listened to others with more experience when I started traversing this industry at the age of 13. i’mm also fortunate to be able to do what I love. The economic fire has been burning for years. Controlled burns are a good thing. When major blazes get out of control trouble follows. A lot can happen in a negative direction if we’re not careful so stay tuned; I’ll bring you the “play-by-play” regardless of the direction.