AI's Real Atomic Effect
Macroeconomic Geopolitical Forces Rule
As I casually perused the Internet airwaves this weekend, printed as well as auditory media and more, buttressed by the discussion around our brunch table get together for Mother’s Day, all I heard was “AI is going to be worse than the atom bomb”. Yup, “Megatrends” at its finest more than 40+ years post its initial publication. AI is now a major front page story. It’s made it to the “family” dinner table. That’s very important; that’s where the basics of economic activity and theory begin.
When macroeconomic theory is applied most think of it as being first a mathematical analysis but in essence the underlying state of our geopolitical world forms the initial interactions that drive what’s eventually represented in those calculations. Inflation, interest rates, basic economic indicators and sentiment reflect the feelings of those they effect. Geopolitical outcomes assume trust, equality and freedom of thought. If the final reported outcomes are flawed due to a lack of belief that these values are in some way skewed, the result becomes biased. Macroeconomic theory loses meaning and credibility, those who depend upon it are left with a world of uncertainty. In the world of AI, if there is a controlling feature that furthers one side of the coin versus the other, a convoluted expression of what can only be described as fraud perpetuates.
That’s the “atom bomb’ we should all be afraid. Given the unbalanced prosecution of lawless politically motivated actors is predetermined and biased by the “powers that be” it’s logical to believe those in control could do the same with AI. In short, results from your searches will provide you with what “they” want you to see, hear and read; not what would be considered the “truth”. Life quickly becomes “their” truth. That’s how Hitler did it.
Edward Snowden is my hero. He has warned that “the AI ecosystem needed to remain open to impede surveillance and protect freedom of speech.” Snowden then continued by saying “maybe they could stop spying on the public and start spying for the public”. That’s really quite a novel thought given Durham’s recently released report on the FBI Trump-Russia investigation suggests there’s a “bit of bias” within our FBI and Justice Department. Fox and their less than accurate moniker being “fair and balanced” was equally disparaged by their recent firing of Tucker Carlson. Circular reasoning within the investigative journalism industry is completely asunder; there’s no credible source of information in this world; Elon Musk’s chance to rectify this with Twitter is being served up to him on a silver platter. Let’s see if he is able to feast on the opportunity. In the interim the adage “believe nothing you hear and only half that you see” truly has meaning. From a prognosticator’s perspective, especially a macroeconomist, that’s troublesome as uncertainty is woven into the outcome; that’s not good.
With that in mind I decided to test a couple queries on OpenAI. The results follow and are presented as received “directly from the AI source”.
Problems With “AI” Directly From ChatGPT
As with any powerful technology, AI has the potential to present several future problems. Here are some of the key concerns that researchers and experts have raised:
Job displacement: AI and automation have the potential to replace human workers in various industries, leading to job losses and economic disruption. Certain roles, particularly those involving repetitive tasks, may be more susceptible to automation. This could result in unemployment and the need for retraining or reskilling of the workforce.
Bias and fairness: AI systems can inherit and perpetuate biases present in the data they are trained on. If the data used to train AI models reflects societal biases, these biases can be amplified and result in unfair or discriminatory outcomes. Ensuring fairness and addressing biases in AI algorithms is an ongoing challenge.
Privacy and security: The widespread use of AI involves the collection and analysis of vast amounts of personal data. This raises concerns about privacy and security. If not properly safeguarded, personal information could be misused or exploited, leading to breaches of privacy and potential harm to individuals.
Ethical considerations: AI raises complex ethical questions. For example, there are concerns regarding the use of AI in autonomous weapons systems, surveillance technologies, or the potential manipulation of public opinion through targeted content. Determining the ethical boundaries and guidelines for AI development and deployment is crucial to prevent misuse or harm.
Lack of transparency: Some AI models, such as deep neural networks, operate as complex black boxes, making it difficult to understand the reasoning behind their decisions. This lack of transparency can be problematic in critical domains such as healthcare or legal systems, where explanations and justifications are necessary.
Unemployment and socioeconomic inequality: The automation of jobs through AI can contribute to unemployment and exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities. If certain segments of society are unable to adapt to new technological requirements, it may lead to a wider wealth gap and social divisions.
Dependence and loss of human skills: Overreliance on AI systems may result in the loss of certain human skills. For instance, increased dependence on AI for calculations and decision-making could erode critical thinking, problem-solving, and creativity in some individuals.
Addressing these potential problems requires a multidisciplinary approach involving researchers, policymakers, ethicists, and industry professionals. Striking a balance between technological advancement and the well-being of individuals and society as a whole is essential to mitigate these challenges.
Benefits of “AI” Directly From ChatGPT
The potential future benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) are numerous and diverse. Here are some of the key areas where AI holds promise:
Automation and Efficiency: AI has the potential to automate repetitive and mundane tasks across various industries, freeing up human workers to focus on more creative and complex activities. This can lead to increased productivity, reduced costs, and improved efficiency.
Healthcare Advancements: AI can revolutionize healthcare by analyzing vast amounts of medical data, assisting in diagnostics, and suggesting personalized treatment plans. It can help identify patterns and predict disease outbreaks, leading to early detection and intervention. AI-powered robots and devices can also assist in surgery, rehabilitation, and elderly care.
Enhanced Customer Experience: AI can enhance customer service by providing personalized recommendations, chatbot support, and tailored shopping experiences. Natural language processing enables better understanding of customer queries and sentiment analysis, leading to improved interactions and customer satisfaction.
Improved Education: AI can transform education by providing personalized learning experiences, adaptive curricula, and intelligent tutoring systems. It can analyze student performance data to identify individual strengths, weaknesses, and learning styles, thereby tailoring educational content accordingly.
Advanced Scientific Research: AI can accelerate scientific discovery by analyzing vast amounts of data, identifying patterns, and generating hypotheses. It can assist in drug discovery, genomics, climate modeling, and other complex research areas, enabling breakthroughs and innovation.
Smart Cities: AI can contribute to the development of smart cities by optimizing energy usage, managing traffic flow, and improving public safety. It can analyze sensor data, monitor infrastructure, and make real-time adjustments to enhance urban living conditions and sustainability.
Enhanced Personalization: AI can personalize user experiences in various domains, such as entertainment, advertising, and social media. By analyzing user preferences and behavior, AI algorithms can recommend tailored content, products, and services, improving user satisfaction and engagement.
Environmental Sustainability: AI can help tackle environmental challenges by optimizing energy consumption, predicting and managing climate change impacts, and improving resource efficiency. It can assist in environmental monitoring, conservation efforts, and sustainable decision-making.
Improved Accessibility: AI technologies can enhance accessibility for individuals with disabilities. Natural language processing and computer vision can enable better communication and interaction for people with hearing or visual impairments, while robotics and assistive devices can enhance mobility and independence.
Economic Growth and Job Creation: While AI may automate certain tasks, it can also create new jobs and drive economic growth by fostering innovation, enabling new industries, and unlocking new opportunities. AI can augment human capabilities and lead to the development of new products and services.
It's important to note that while AI offers significant potential benefits, it also raises ethical considerations, such as privacy, bias, transparency, and the impact on employment. These challenges need to be carefully addressed to ensure AI is developed and deployed responsibly for the benefit of society as a whole.
Upon my first review I was impressed. If anything, as it relates to a goal of the Federal Reserve, there’s going to be a lot of people lining up at the unemployment office soon. That’s exactly what’s needed to bring interest rates down, right? At the same time it’s also going to add a profitability factor to corporate income statements as technology enhancements have provided in the past; this time the effect will be on steroids.
AI has the potential to not only reduce employment, the corporate structure, the level of those receiving “pink slips” will be primarily comprised of the higher paid, longer term employees. It just makes sense. Not only does firing higher paid employees and replacing them with lower paid ones fit this model type, the younger, newly minted ones are more adept at using today’s “modern” technology. Additionally, it’s going to be easier to indoctrinate them into today’s “Brave New World” versus changing those whose values reflect the past. Problem is that firing higher paid employees takes more money out of an economy’s cash flows; less money to spend causes contraction. Be careful what you wish for. Falling rates do not signal “good times”.
As a writer, more so a reader, there’s times the words of others are superior to mine. Such is the case today with an article published in Fox News “OpenAI CEO Sam Altman admits his biggest fear for AI: ‘It can go quite wrong”. Read it, there’s really no better source than directly from the “horse’s mouth”.
In yesterday’s article “Yellin’ At Yellin” the premise “elections have consequences” was stressed. Ai is going to be a game changer. In the hands of the wrong people, the ones who legislate changes effecting your lives, problems as exhibited in intelligence communities will proliferate and Orwell’s “1984”, maybe even his “Animal Farm” will prevail. It’s your world and the only voice you have is at the polls. The next upcoming election will be the most important of our lives here and around the world. “Vote early and often”. You may as well; seems like everyone else did in 2020. If you don’t think AI is going to be a deciding tool in 2024 give me a call; I’ve got some beachfront property for sale that’s only underwater half of the day.
Yup, still “ranting” and for good reason. I’m turning my attention back to developing a few more educational segments on “What Tools We Use & How We Use Them” featuring Barchart, a service we’ve used for more than twenty-five years. Look for a couple more segments on our series “Investing & Trading Psychology” this week as well; you’ve made it one of our most favorite reads and that’s a good thing. What’s happening “between your ears” is very important. Trading wise my only position is long Carbon Emissions at 84.50, stopped out of Rough Rice for a small gain, closed out Sugar for a 20% profit, took a small loss in the long Japanese Yen trade (always early, will enter again) and a few stocks. It’s summer and May has been true to it’s moniker. Hey, they making any progress on that “debt” deal?
Hope you enjoyed this post. I’m just a young 68 years old; my Dad became a broker when I was 13. It’s time for me to ‘give back’ to all of you what’s in my head. It’s not always pretty but it’s based on history . . . and history, unchecked, repeats itself as you are witnessing..
Everyone learns at their own pace. If you pick everything up the first time through, great but if not email me at david@thetickeredu.com so we can further help. Thanks again go out to Danny www.mrtopstep.com . . . check him out; he’s worth your “click” and thanks to all of you who have adopted what is being created and presented; we’re humbled by the response and referrals. Again, let me know what you want to learn, I’m all ears.
Here’s a perfect song by “one-hit-wonders” Zager & Evans. Hope you enjoyed today’s “rant” and how what’s happening in your world is up to you; it’s an interesting time despite the markets being in neutral.