There's Something Happening Here

Long-Term Just Makes Sense

It’s a great weekend to sit back, think, and write a few words. Nothing has changed. Sure, we’ve made some important decisions, but they are part of the plan. If you do not have a plan you can stick by, then you’re throwing darts. I like darts, but face it, any good monkey can throw darts and hit winners from time to time. Don’t just be a monkey.

Trump is nobody’s fool. Those he picked to surround him are pretty sharp as well. I am one to assess the whole game plan. What is Trump and his team looking to do as they handle what was an intolerable injustice thrust upon America? I’ve never been woke or a believer in DEI. Give me actual achievement, merit-based success, and I’ll join that team. How about you?

Today, I’ll stick with macroeconomics, geopolitics, geoeconomics, and game theory. I would emphasize that nothing has changed, but in reality, everything has changed. It’s a good thing Trump won. Now let’s take a look at “whar’s next.’

Tariff Battle

I must admit, I do not think that the tariffs we collect will ever obviate Income Tax. It is just reality that we are not operating in the 1800s. Sure, it would be nice, but from where I sit, increasing the tariff amounts collected, raising the manufacturing basis in the country, selling the world what we have, and more, just makes sense.

It’s amazing to me that Trump has brought in commitments for more than $10 trillion in funds in such a short period. Hell, the jet was a gift. Should we add that in? If he is able to transcend the problems he inherited from a brain-dead administration, we all owe him thanks, not additional negative commentary and baseless legislation.

Harvard did not accept me when I applied years ago. That was very “beneficial” to all. Carnegie-Mellon did, and what I learned from my peers is priceless. I first understood what John Nash was trying to teach with “game theory.” He was an amazing man who realized you cannot always get what you want. Set your priorities. That’s good advice, even if Janis Joplin agrees, eh?

So that’s what I perceive Trump is doing. The tariff game is a bit of a hook. We are not going to be taken advantage of by the world going forward. Build it here, or buy what we want you to buy that we own, and that works. Sure, you want to make it, then just import the product here, pay the tariff. It works both ways, eh?

Energy

The United States, from Alaska to the Gulf of America, has more energy available for the world than any other region on earth. It amazed me that ‘Biden’, or whoever was running the country, thought differently. From our coal to nuclear, from oil to gas to whatever the needs are, the states are the place to be. In today’s world, given the AI’s need for power, it’s a national security problem as well as an industry.

I could go on and on with suggestions I’ve made in the past. Even yesterday’s hit on the nuclear industry, Oklo (“OKLO”) and Nuscale (“SMR”) make sense, but there is no better place to be than in the Liquified Natural Gas industry. Bernstein agrees, so I feel better. Bernstein has been ahead of the game for years. Follow their analysis and words. Bernstein is right.

I’m a strong buyer in these industries. I’ve told you the ones on my list several times, so I’m not going to rehash the past. I am going to dwell on my long-term positions in the futures market. I’ve put positions on for years to come from October 2025 to 2029, and will continue to move this decision forward. It takes us a ‘long’ time to develop anything. It has taken years for this industry to come together. Its time is right now. The price of nuclear is next, but it’s a couple of years out. It’s time to buy and hold natural gas.

Interest Rates

I love buying when the world is worried. Japan has its problems. They need to sell our treasuries to support their own. It gives me an easy decision and an appropriate hedge at the same time.

I think the Yen is heading back to at least the 125 level. Inflation is higher in Japan. It is time to raise interest rates. It’s time to make a better deal with the United States. It is time for Japan to understand that the worst “economic” environment is in front of them. Realization is tough to handle, but reality speaks. Listen with both ears.

In addition to looking for the Yen to strengthen, I am a ‘strong’ buyer of the 30-year bond and the TLT ETF. Trump is going to bring rates down one way or another. The world is coming to the States and will be doing so at the detriment of their own home countries. In any case, Trump is going to keep taxes low and deliver on growth. It will take time, so patience is the key. I’m patient.

Remember, I’m long-term in nature. I’m happy with 5%+ rates for a large portion of my portfolio. You should be, too. This is what gives you the innate ability to trade. If you see the option markets take the inherent gamma to higher levels, take advantage of the discrepancy and sell time. I have many naked put shorts out there on TLTs. In a way, I hope they ‘expire’ worthless, but I’ll be happy to add more of this ETF stock if the opportunity arises. Remember, in building a position, patience rules all plans.

Rare Earth Elements

Did you ever wonder who is in ‘control’ of this industry? I did and realized that the academic world, you know, those scientists who’ve worked with the Department of Defense, hold the key.

They want to do good things for the world. I want to make money. Put these two types of people and investors together, and see what’s happening. I’ve done my research on the stocks out there, most of which are entrenched in the mining industry, and you will agree, there’s nothing to buy. It’s like the late 1970s on steroids.

Can what I’m assembling make them better? Yes. Can I assemble a pathway to those who already recycle the elements needed? Yes. Do I know how much money I’ll need to control this project? No, but I’m getting there. Give me another month.

One thing I’ll need is the benefit of “not doing this alone.” From identifying scientists to harboring available capital, I will develop partnerships. That’s how I’m putting it all together. It’s happening this month, so stay tuned.

Jefferson Starship emerged from Jefferson Airplane. Nothing is going to stop us now was not just a song. It was a way of life. The belief that you or anyone can do anything you want. Great dream, eh? I’m a dreamer, I still have one more in me, but more so, with more than half a century of history behind me, I’ll do this one right.