The Dike's Springing A Few Leaks

We're Going to Need a Few More Fingers

Damn it’s boring out there throughout the worldwide financial markets. It’s a shame that “LDSP”, Lil’ Drug Store Products, the entity that resurrected “No-Doz” back in 2017 isn’t publicly traded. It would be “headed for the moon”. I hear on Indeed there’s an advertisement running for Dutch kids with strong fingers to plug a few holes in the “economic dike”. From what I’m reading, the job better pay well. It’s getting harder to fill these holes and they’re starting to appear more and more frequently. Let’s look at a few that have recently appeared starting with China.

China Has a Pretty Bad Cold

It’s official, the Chinese economy can now be compared to COVID; the problems just lingering, leaving the infected weak for the long term. Pretty soon Fauci will probably claim that this was his idea all along and we should “appreciate”, not “persecute” him. Yeah, right, if you believe that one I have some beachfront property for sale that’s only under water half of the day.

Financial markets are just beginning to fully grasp how bad the Chinese situation is. I still see estimates out there from the “investment banks” groveling to do business on the mainland, who continue to inflate the future. Who are they kidding; it’s pretty bad in China and given they haven’t beat an estimate in months, chances are it is going to get worse before it gets better. China is in a very serious, long-term malaise and it is not due to the pandemic; it’s from Beijing's expanding its total grip on the economy. That is not going to change anytime soon.

Economic development in authoritarian regimes tends to follow a predictable pattern, first a period of rapid growth as businesses thrive followed by arbitrary intervention. I sense companies that were once politically supported are now “drowning” in a sea of fear and uncertainty after essentially being shut down by President Xi's response to COVID. In short, businesses don’t know whether they are “coming or going”.

Investors are not throwing money at China like they used to. Even “Marco Polo” has given President Xi the “heave ho” on the “Belt & Road” initiative with South Korea stepping in to fill the void. China’s central bank just cut interest rates and stimulus efforts have been pledged in the most recent Politburo meeting. What improvements do you see? Nothing as there's been little “improvement” in economic activity. When another global recession hits, China's growth will not help revive demand abroad. As a matter of fact chances are that China is going to cause the next depression. Factors are on the table and unlike skeletons that used to be “in the closet” this time they’re dancing on the street in broad daylight.

Fitch Teaches the Treasury a Lesson

My only question is what took them so long. I wonder if Fitch gave Janet Yellen a bit of a heads up. I would have loved to have been on that call:

Fitch: Hello, is this Secretary of the Treasury Yellen?

Yellen: Yes it is, who is this?

Fitch: This is Fitch Ratings and we’re calling to give you a heads up that we’re going to lower the ratings of the debt of the United States a notch.

Yellen: Is this you Joe? Funny boy. Don’t you have better things to joke around about than the debt you created? Seriously, certainly there’s something Hunter has done that needs to be covered up.

Fitch: No this really is Fitch Rating and yes we are lowering your rating and yes you’re correct, it was Joe’s fault but that makes no difference, you simply spend too much.

Yellen: How silly of me, it’s you Jerome, isn’t it? Who else could it be? Besides no one else really knows how much I really spend other than you, eh? You’re finished raising rates now, aren’t you?

Fitch: Madame Secretary, it’s not Joe Biden or Jerome Powell, it’s Fitch Ratings and all we wanted to do was give you a call so our “public announcement” didn’t surprise you. I can see it doesn’t really make any difference as in reality you really don’t have a clue so sorry to disturb you; give our best to everyone you mentioned; you’re going to need it.

There’s been so much written about this recent event that there is little for me to ad. I do believe it’s the first “shot across the bow” and hopefully the “ship Yellen’s running” is about to go into reverse instead of the “full speed ahead” that’s been the “course we have charted” for years.

It’s time for everyone in politics over the ripe old age of “70” to get ready to “walk the plank”, even Feinstein and McConnell need to go put on their life preservers. Problem solvers need to be coherent enough to realize (1) who they are; (2) where they are; and (3) what they are doing and why? Maybe we should lower the age limit, eh?

Welcome to Third World Justice Systems

There are lies of commission and lies of omission. As we remember the day that Mr. Nixon actually resigned a few other thoughts come to mind. They arise then revolve around the indictments just issued by the Biden Department of Justice’s Anti-Trump Special Counsel Jack Smith working in a third world culture we used to call a justice system. Who are we kidding, more so what direction is this country actually heading?

Don’t get me wrong, the two names that should not appear on next year’s Presidential ballot are Trump or Biden so I’m not taking sides. I’m just reading what the world, or at least the part of it with values that still relate to the Magna Carta thinks. The Biden Justice Department, under Smith, has left no stone unturned in the zealous obsession to “get Trump.” If they have to lie to get Trump, by commission or omission, then lie they will. They make Nixon look like a saint.

All of the Smith indictments are nothing more than a decidedly corrupt and deliberate abuse of the American system of justice. They are nothing more than a “pack of lies” of commission and omission. It’s Jack Smith, Merrick Garland and Uncle Joe himself who should be indicted and convicted, not Donald Trump. Again, make no mistake about it, Trump should be defeated; I look forward to the first debate and fully expect Vivek Ramaswamy or Tim Scott to shine. If nothing else their values need to come to the forefront as this country and how it’s run politically needs to change.

Best Article I’ve Read in Months

Different than joe Biden, I don’t believe in plagiarism. I don’t have to, by now you see that I’m a free-thinking individual and I cannot write and publish what I don’t believe in or isn’t my own words. With that in mind and making his “second” appearance on “The Ticker” is Lance Roberts with an article originally published on Investing.com earlier this week. Titled: S&P 500: Current Correction Has Some Way to Go Before We Turn Higher, is one you can’t miss so click on the link and read it from start to finish; it’s much better than I could write and given I agree with the bulk of what’s presented it’s present it here.

Back to work writing.I’m just a “young” 68 years old looking to help you become the best damn investor or trader you can possibly be. Everyone learns at their own pace. If you pick it all up the first time , great if not email me at david@thetickeredu.com so we can further help. Again, let me know what you want to learn, I’m all ears.

Another repeater I’m afraid. At least it’s not REM’s “The End of the World” so I’m not nearly as pessimistic as I’ve been but certainly not bullish either. The macroeconomic signals, enhanced by geopolitical events, many of which are coming directly from our very own United States, leave me cold. In Bowie’s own words from “Changes”, “time may change me but I can’t change time”. You can’t either but we can still vote. We’ll all have that chance again next year and assuming the votes will be counted correctly I sense the changing public’s opinions will reflect our direction. Pretend you are from Chicago and vote early . . . and often.