Meet George Jetson
Moving Past Rosie
I have to admit, I’d rather live in Texas during the winter than be on the Northeast coast. Sure, we were hit by 1/2” of ice, followed by 3” of sleet/snow, then frigid below-zero temperatures, but nothing moved. It’s been a fun couple of days taking care of the grandchildren and their dogs, but it's nice to get back to the real world.
I’m Old Enough To Remember George Jetson
It’s not that I’m in my early seventies; it’s more the fact that during my “formative” years, I had the privilege of watching Peabody & Sherman and The Jetsons. Nothing better than watching George fly around in a device that’s ready to come to market. It’s not just a “flying car”; it’s more of a logical sense of transportation that fits into the society we call today. Tesla and Elon Musk have figured out a way to recreate “Rosie,” so what’s next? I’m banking on these two to fill in the next gap.
Joby Aviation
You have to start somewhere, and this one makes sense, especially after working with the many “drone” oriented securities that are more geared towards defense than not. Here’s a brief analysis to get you started.
Joby Aviation is developing electric air taxis designed for commercial passenger service in urban and suburban markets. Their aircraft can take off and land vertically like a helicopter but fly efficiently like an airplane, to provide faster, quieter, and cleaner transportation.
Aircraft Design: Their flagship aircraft is designed to carry 4 passengers plus a pilot, with a range of up to 150 miles and top speeds of 200 mph
Regulatory Progress: Joby has been working closely with the FAA and has made significant progress in the certification process
Strategic Partnerships: Notable partnerships include deals with Uber (acquired Uber Elevate), Toyota (major investor and manufacturing partner), and various airlines
Manufacturing: Plans to manufacture aircraft at scale with Toyota’s assistance
Potential Positives:
First-mover advantage in the eVTOL space
Strong intellectual property portfolio
Experienced management team with aviation backgrounds
Significant funding and strategic partnerships
Key Risks:
Pre-revenue company with significant cash burn
Regulatory uncertainty and lengthy certification process
Unproven market demand for air taxi services
Competition from other eVTOL companies like Archer, Lilium, and traditional aerospace companies
High capital requirements for scaling manufacturing
As a pre-revenue company, Joby’s financials focus on R&D spending, cash runway, and progress toward commercialization. Investors should monitor their cash burn rate and funding needs.
The urban air mobility market is projected to grow significantly, but the timeline to profitability remains uncertain. Success will depend on regulatory approval, public acceptance, infrastructure development, and operational economics.
Archer Aviation
Archer is developing electric aircraft designed to provide rapid, sustainable air transportation services in urban environments. Their primary focus is on creating aircraft that can transform short-distance city travel by reducing commute times from hours to minutes.
Aircraft Portfolio: Their flagship “Midnight” aircraft is designed to carry 4 passengers, with a range of approximately 60 miles and cruise speeds around 150 mph
Manufacturing Strategy: Partnership with Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler) for manufacturing expertise and production scaling
Regulatory Progress: Working through FAA certification process, though still in earlier stages compared to some competitors
Commercial Agreements: Partnerships with airlines like United Airlines for potential future services
Stellantis: Major manufacturing and investment partner providing automotive production expertise
United Airlines: Commercial partnership and investment for future air taxi services
Various Urban Markets: Exploring launch opportunities in major metropolitan areas
Potential Positives:
Strong backing from established industrial partners (Stellantis)
Growing investor interest in eVTOL sector
Experienced aerospace and automotive talent
Clear path to manufacturing scale through Stellantis partnership
Key Risks:
Pre-revenue company with ongoing cash burn
Intense competition in the eVTOL space
Regulatory certification timeline uncertainty
Market acceptance and infrastructure development challenges
Capital-intensive business model requiring significant ongoing investment
Versus Joby Aviation:
Joby appears further along in FAA certification process
Archer has stronger automotive manufacturing partnership through Stellantis
Both companies are targeting similar markets but with different aircraft specifications
Market Differentiation:
Focus on shorter-range urban missions (60 miles vs. Joby’s 150+ miles)
Emphasis on high-frequency, short-distance routes
Manufacturing approach leveraging automotive industry expertise
Like other pre-revenue eVTOL companies, key metrics to monitor include:
Cash runway and burn rate
Milestone achievement in certification process
Partnership development and revenue pipeline
Progress toward commercial operations
The eVTOL sector remains highly speculative with significant potential upside if the technology and market develop as projected. However, investors should be prepared for:
High volatility typical of emerging technology stocks
Extended timeline to profitability
Regulatory and technical execution risks
Market development uncertainty
The success of companies like Archer will largely depend on successfully navigating the certification process, proving operational viability, and establishing sustainable unit economics once commercial operations begin.
Remember, folks, I’m usually early on my calls, but I’m a futurist at heart. I can see clearly now, thanks to my long-time buddy George Jetson. I hope you can, too.
Nothing better than a little Frank Sinatra. I remember when my Mom went to see him. All she talked about was his blue eyes. She was able to meet with him backstage after the show. He was one hell of a talent, that cannot be questioned. So were The Jetsons and Peabody & Sherman. It’s all out there for you. All you had to do is watch and listen to what’s next. I like what’s next. Hope you do too.