In the first hundred days, Trump was just getting started. Face it, folks, the table was set against him. Biden’s health, the mistakes made, and more so the worldwide events that transpired created both problems and a need for leadership.
Practicing macroeconomic, geopolitical, geoeconomic, and my favorite, modern game theory, works. We listen with both ears open, and our results have exceeded averages. We premise that ability on always having ‘cash’ at our fingertips, not being afraid to admit being wrong, and being patient. Nonetheless, this is a very important week for the Trump administration and the public at large. Let’s talk about what’s happening.
The Big Beautiful Bill
Rome was not built in a day. The empire fell much quicker than it rose. We are in the midst of a 250-year exercise in republic building. It has taken us through thick and thin to get here. Trump knows that a priority is maintaining the lowest possible taxes as possible going forward. This is the most important legislation on the table.
It’s not that the prior administration just failed. They failed miserably. The overall and terrible Afghanistan pullout was an indication to the rest of the world that America is heading in the wrong direction. No one was fired. Many should have been prosecuted. In the Biden administration, no one was fired, not even his doctors, if any really knew more than they spoke of.
The Middle East exploded, our enemies increased, and Russia took aim at Ukraine. Is there anything I missed to the exclusion of the autopen and Biden’s cognitive ability, or disability as that may be. Can you imagine what we’d be doing politically if Harris had won? Scary, no? I wake up in a cold sweat just thinking about it.
Geopolitics Frame Game Theory
My first interaction with “modern game theory” happened forty-five years ago. John Nash was a brilliant man. Why anyone in the last administration didn’t abide by his thoughts is beyond recognition. It’s simple. Determine exactly where you want to be positioned as the “game” concludes, know what you are willing to give up, or trade, and what you cannot sacrifice. I do it every day. So does Trump and every solid leader across. the globe.
I have a project I’m assembling with an old friend who understands these words. Yes, I can do everything myself, but together, no one can touch us. Funny, his forty-five-year career is based on good decision-making. Like anyone else, he and what he has created didn’t always get what he wanted, but he had a plan. I’m on track to assemble an award-winning capital raise in the rare earth marketplace. It’s like living in the late 1979 gold rush, nothing more, nothing less, with one exception. It’s better to assemble a winning team than to go it alone. Sure, I bring other benefits to the table. He does, too, so together we’ll figure out the best way to proceed.
The same thing is happening in Trump’s world. Most of what’s been seen, from Musk DOGE to tariffs to deportation to ICE, the only important item on Trump’s table was immigration, and he fixed that all on day one. It’s important to know your objectives, then determine the best way to achieve them. I can do it, Trump can do it, and so can you.
So What’s Your Plan
Do you have one? Are you willing to admit when you are wrong? I am, but in reality, I still watch UNH. I’m buying up TLT and 30-year bond futures as they hit the fan. I’ll always do the opposite of the herd. They are usually wrong, even AI agrees. When the numbers are right, the option gamma agrees, and my overall basis aligns, I take action.
Maybe that’s the difference between us. I’m not afraid of being wrong. Are you?
Imagine wasn’t just a song. It was a religion. I bet if you are old enough, you easily remember where you were when you heard John Lennon was murdered. I do. It was tragic, but his memory lives on, as it should. I was never enamored by the Yoko Ono thing, but I was for where he stood. In a way, his death was part of a plan. Everything is, whether you agree or not. Be prepared for everything, and know it is often better to work with others.