Judge Merchan's Taking A Break

You Should Too

I’ve been “kicking” in this industry for probably longer than most of you have been alive. I know what the week before Memorial Day brings, little to nothing. Trump is taking a break, hitting the “Bronx” on Thursday and then more than likely the golf course. You should too. If something happens you’ll know it but face it, the “street” is heading to the Hamptons if they are not there already.

It’s a good week for me to catch up on my work. Summer is coming and it starts with Memorial Day. You’ll get a “slight” pick up next week but more than likely after June the months of July and August are pretty much dead with the world taking a vacation. Yom Kippur is late this year hitting the calendar on Friday, October 11th so it’s a big one. Most activity market-wise waits until after the Jewish holiday but given it’s quite late this year you might see some activity return before then. It’s summer so enjoy it.

What’s Happening In The Copper Market

In my private threads many people are not just watching, they are participating in the metal markets. I am too but I’m long-term in nature. You can lead a horse to water but not make him drink. It’s true. I started buying copper around the $3.80 level. I’ve been in the market since post my usual seasonally-based trade. Look, I have lived in these markets for years. History repeats itself but this year supply and demand exists. All of the prognosticators I follow, along with the inventory reports I pay for suggest copper supplies are less than they need to be. If that changes I’ll let you know.

For now, get used to the volatility. If you are a trader, I wish you the best. I learned a long time ago that no one can reliably pick the “tops and bottoms” of anything. You are no different but many of you will try. Good luck doing that. I’ll watch the support and resistance lines, adding at support levels, and then just waiting. If there’s a future that’s going to go up and down it’s copper. Enjoy the ride.

It’s Nvidia Time Tomorrow

I’ve been actively involved in the Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) industry for years. I love it and realize both its potential and pitfalls. Nvidia took me in years ago with the work they proposed. It’s hitting on its plans and there’s little reason to see the company not hit its goals but quarter-to-quarter performance is specious at best. I’ve been long the short-term call options since late last week as analysts started to raise projections. I’m not sure what I’ll do going into the actual earnings report so check back tomorrow. I’ll let you know my ideas here, on LinkedIn, and in The Ticker if you are a member.

In a way you can tie the success of this industry and in particular the chips they make to the copper market. I’m not able to fully assess the relationship. I depend on others as they know more than me. I just listen but what they are saying makes sense. Basic electrification will increase the demand for copper worldwide. As interest rates head lower demand will increase as well. Keep watching but understand that changes in the world drive prices. Keep your ears and eyes open and stay tuned.

What Else Is Happening

Not much and in the same breath quite a bit. We’re starting to get close to summer in Texas. Temperatures are rising and “air conditioners” are humming. My work on this project is moving forward as is my work in the AI field. If anyone thinks the replies on AI appear out of nowhere think again. Remember, in the AI field, the answers posted need to come from somewhere. The “machines” are becoming smarter every day. That is because experts have been assembled to write their initial responses. It is not smoke and mirrors that drive this industry. It’s nothing more than taking what is ‘real’ in this world and bringing it to your attention. We will make the world a smarter place while these “machines” and you keep learning.

Soon, they’ll be able to ‘think’ and make the responses delivered to you much better. Now, however, the responses you obtain come from people like me. By keeping it that way we’ll propagate devices for everyone’s benefit, especially yours.

1968 was an important year, one we’ll probably reinvent this year as the Democrats hit Chicago in late August. The Zombies released “Time Of The Season” in 1968 and its lyrics remain true to this day. For me, it’s a seasonal thing when it relates to trading and more. I’d love to look more closely at the “widow maker” Natural Gas but I’m a patient kind of person. I do that in October but something is telling me to look now. I’m serious about summer being here and want to make a point. History is alive and living in this world and some things don’t change. I seldom fight seasonality or the season. You should not either.