It's OK To Be Wrong
Not All Decisions Are The Right Ones
Like Schwarzenegger said, “I’ll be back,” rings true in the investment world. The most important part is understanding that not every decision is the right one. The second most important decision is knowing how to react.
Here are a couple of different thoughts to guide you along this curve.
UnitedHealthcare
Nothing like being wrong in many different ways. First, the new CEO is out, and the forward statements are history. Exactly how their future revenues will be effective is unknown, given the reduction in pharmacy expenses. In other words, despite a large drop in the stock’s price, there’s reason to get out and wait. That’s what happened.
Nike
I like the stock and I like the industry. The problem I have is the constant, negative words I read every day related to their support of men competing in women’s sports. There is a reason to oversee this one, but remember, I’m a revenue watcher. On the bright side, tariffs are somewhat mitigated. Nike has the balance sheet to buy other product competitors. Their management is strong. I’ve stopped selling naked puts and instead am buying out-of-the-money puts for insurance, protection purposes.
Japanese Yen & 30-Year Bonds
When it comes to trading futures, I’m usually early, and have the firepower to “hang in there.’ That’s what is happening here. I think the Yen is heading back to the 125 level. I’ve thought that for more than two years. In addition, I’m a believer that Trump is tackling inflation correctly. With that in mind, I’ll keep selling the Yen and buying the 30-year.
That’s it for today, but remember, you are going to lose. If you think you are always going to be right, I have some beachfront land for sale that’s only underwater half of the day.
Arnold was right. I’ll be back, but I’m a realist. I’m going to be wrong from time to time. That’s OK as long as I make decisions based on the reality of today. That is a certainty that we look for, and you should too. Reality changes over time, especially with a Trump presidency. Keep your ears and eyes open. It’s a necessity.