If You Were Watching

This Is What You Would Perceive

While I do not have time to communicate as often as I would like, that does not mean I am not watching. I do my best to teach and manage lots of money. I’m a very simple type of position trader that makes life easier but keep in mind, the world is complex.

Israel took out Yahya Sinwar today, creating a void in Hamas leadership. The ‘big guy’ Joe Biden tried to take credit, but we know better. It’s tough to claim to wear the “big boy” pants when they barely fit over diapers. It’s time for a real leader to take over the world we live in, and Donald Trump has a proven “track record” and, from what I see, momentum.

A couple of months back, I jumped on the “crypto” bandwagon, and with the insight of a solid investor, I realized that Ford was positioned well for a Trump victory. I did not expect Kamala to self-destruct as she has, but her lack of leadership and inability to answer direct questions without using “word salad” discussions has taken its toll.

Trump Is All About Tariffs

Makes good sense to me and it should be to you as well, but I did not feel that way a couple of months ago when first addressed. Tariffs were a concern but recently, the negatives have dissipated.

Interest Rates Are Heading Lower Worldwide

Check it our for yourself. It seems to me the central banks have a better way of talking to each other than most governmental institutions. A couple of months ago, the table was set for the United States to “lead the pack” loewer but Europe took the lead. This left Jerome Powell in his usual position, guessing and catching up. I was not in favor of a 50 basis-point reduction in our domestic rates. It drove the Dollar lower quickly.

That worried me and still does. Rates were far too low for too long and the printing presses never ceased. Nonetheless, the Dollar held strong, especially when most of the world’s rates hovered around the zero level. That helped the United States, an import oriented country, to maintain a balance. Nothing lasts forever and despite the Dollar on the upside, inflation soon followed. There was far too much “money” floating in the system and, like always, it was chasing too few goods. Prices had to increase. It sees we remain in this cycle but the handwriting on the wall is plain to see.

Rates around the world are coming down. Keep in mind, declining rates are not good and this case is no different. There is one exclusion to this result and that one centers around tariffs. As an importing country, the United States economy could have been hurt badly with tariffs being applied during a downside expansion of the Dollar, but something happened on the way to the election. The Dollar found some strength as it becamme obvious that the central banks were all going to bring rares down and they were going to do it, sequentially. Yes, there is a Santa Claus and this time the present delivered was Donald Trump.

Just Watch Corn

We are blessed in our hommeland to grow lots of corn. If you were watching harvest numbers and more this year you noted, as I did, that we were growing much more and planning to grow even more next year. It’s a great export and we do make tons of the ethanol byproduct but when corn is bountiful, higher prices are unlikely.

More so, with the recent central bank decisions to sequentially lower rates, the Dollar has not just held its own, it has strengthened against world currencies.That’s a good thing for tariff lovers like me out there. I’m not talking about just hitting China. No, I’m looking to hit Europe and other regions with tariffs nas well. I’m looking to take back the manufacturing world and build it here under the “Made In America” banner just like Trump seeks.

So I’ve stayed away from the corn trade other than garnering information from it and I’m buying Ford Motor. Trump is in the “driver’s sear” here and absent a timely placed Democratic surprise he’s our next president. The Republicans will carry the Senate so the only question we have is the House of Representatives. There is some uncertainty there but if my “tea leaves” are correct, part two of Trump’s leadership will embark on a ship with a singular direction. Drill baby drill and make America great again will be on their way. I like what I see. How about you?

See me, feel me, touch me but most importantly listen to me. I’m not doing this for my health and neither should you. Time is not on my side. I’m busy but realize thousands of you want to know what I’m thinking. I’ll do my best to get a paid article out Sunday but that depends on how busy it gets. Trump is going to run the table. That’s why I’ll post my positions on Sunday and maybe brag a little bit. I listen to the world. Always changing is something we’ve come to expect bt there is a pattern to this craziness. If I can see it, so can you so listen to what’s reported and act. The absolute “worst” thing that can happen is that you are wrong.