Hurry Up & Wait

Works Every Time

As Mr. Rogers would say, “it’s a wonderful day in the neighborhood”. For many of you looking for interest rates to decline and the investment world to become a rosy place there seems to be a few “kinks” in the armor. It happens folks and simply put you have to go with the flow. For me that means buying when they are selling and selling when they are buying. I’ll stick to that plan picking up more Yen, albeit at higher prices, and U.S. Bonds, not yet today but I’m looking to pick up more. How about you?

Powell has power, eh? You bet he does and so does the Federal Reserve but that power comes with reality, inflation appears to be rebounding and as I have said, along with a few other, inflation is here to stay longer than most assumed. That works for me as we all know that over time, especially in a presidential election year, rates are more than likely headed lower. I’ll wait, I’m patient but while I’m waiting I’ll be happy to hedge.

How About Them VIX Calls

I told you, I’m a patient person. I also told you that I’m usually early which is why I buy options that do not expire tomorrow, next month or the month after. I usually go out three to six months, sometimes longer and for good reason. I use call options like the VIX to hedge. I own a substantial portfolio and the only way I know how to hedge the inevitable is with VIX calls. I buy them when they are “cheap” and the “Greeks”, in particular “Delta”, helps me determine when that’s happening. I would love to be able to teach you everything I know and use on this thread but that is not possible. I’m in the midst of putting together courses that will help get you there but then again, it is you that are patient as Rome wasn’t built in a day. There’s only so many hours daily.

So what happened today was more than not expected. The “herd” changed direction on a “dime”. It is not that this type of move was unexpected, it was. When, like every thing else we follow and watch is unknown but one thing we do know is events of this nature are probably going to happen and quite predictable.

This screenshot, taken about one half hour before the close says it all. Will the trend continue tomorrow? I don’t know and neither do you so I sold about 25% of my total position before the close. Like I usually do, I seek to take my costs out of the equation as soon as possible and let the rest of the position “ride”. I’m not there yet despite my selling 25% but that’s OK. I’ll speculate that the overseas markets will take a hint from the action in the U.S. markets a bit further tomorrow. What do you think?

Well, from Mr. Rogers to Warren Buffett, it is a good day in my neighborhood. I get to buy what I want cheaper and I get to sell my “hedges” higher. What could be better? I think that looking at “Chinese” stocks could be better and I let the “big boys” do that for me as they do it better than I can. Sure, I picked up a nifty 50% buying “TAL” but like everything I do, I have sold a few shares of this security and turned it into cash. I am not a fool and when you are given a dramatic rise in stock prices over a short time period do not look a “gift horse” in the mouth. Take advantage of the short term move you received and remember, what goes up can certainly come down.

When you have time and experience on your side there is little you cannot see and do. It will take you “time and energy” to catch up but that’s why I post. It is also why I do my best to get my “courses” out. I’m working on it. Like anything that’s good it takes time and I appreciate the time you have given to me.

I don’t care if you call him “Yusuf” or if you call him “Cat Stevens”, I started to listen to him fifty years ago. Damn he is good and so is his message. He had a plan and that is what counts in today’s “investment world”. No one is going to be “right” every day but over time, everyone is going to be right especially if you have learned how to do things the “right way”. That’s what I am trying to drill into your head. There is a right way to learn how to invest and trade. Starting here on Substack is a very good place to begin but in reality it takes more and for me that takes time. I know exactly what will be needed to learn. I also know it takes time to put it together. Thanks for waiting.