How Low Can They Go
My Crystal Ball Is A Little Cloudy
Trust all is well wherever you are and you are enjoying and hopefully “learning” from what is “posted” here. There is much more coming especially on what we are putting together with “Education Horizons”. Yes, it is a labor of love, one where I am teaching everyone how to trade and learn the “right way”. The “electronic” version of my book “The Ticker’s Bible” is here. Like everything else it has taken far longer than I hoped it would to “hit the presses” but that’s life, eh? For me at least it is. Always remember, thank you for your patience. Patience is a virtue, practice it regularly.
So given that patience works I’ve been watching a couple commodities trade and I’ve been doing just that, watching. Both Corn and Natural Gas are hitting lows on a daily basis. I’m still watching as I post this article and you should too. Face it, bottoms are a great place to buy. Where they are and when they have finally reached their bottom is not as easy as one thinks. On the option side, the “Greeks”, especially the “Delta” are important to watch. For me, looking out towards the longer term, starting to buy calls on both are coming into focus but to date, I’m on the sidelines. How about you?
Corn & Natural Gas Hit Lows Oh My
Some will say it is all political in nature. With the downside in Corn one would expect the prices for things like cereal and pasta in the grocery stores to head lower. We have been through a round of smaller packages but the associated prices, especially for the “cereal” brands have not decreased in price. Pasta and the like have remained not only staples in the market they have not really increased in price. I know, I do the shopping just about every Monday as Mondays are “senior discount” days and I’m a senior. I get 10% off of my total bill and everything counts, eh? It does in this household.
Not a happy site for farmers from here, Canada and around the world. Again, I’m just watching as bottoms in anything are always illusive. While I’m an option buyer it does make sense to look further out on the curve. Even my favorite fertilizer company is in the dumper. When I take “profits” from other securities that have performed I usually put more money into Nutrien “NTR” but the last couple rounds, I’ve just invested in short term treasuries as they are still paying 5% and more. Remember, I am boring and quite conservative in nature. It’s worked for me over the last few decades so why make a change at this time in life. Again, that’s me. For those of you who are more into risk taking, go for it. Maybe you’ll be right and I’ll have egg on my face. It happens but in my world, I’ve found that “wearing egg” isn’t all that bad, especially when markets are closer to tops than bottoms.
This one is more political than not but one thing I have noticed, crude oil prices don’t follow natural gas prices, or vice versa. They used to and it was a pretty reliable trade but it isn’t any longer. Politically the current administration wants everyone to live off of the “grid” and has debunked natural gas in any way it can. Pipelines are in trouble, so it liquified natural gas at all levels so put that into your “information processing” toolkit and look for things to change. I am and again, I’m looking forward as hopefully it will all change during an election year.
So keep your eyes and ears open and get ready for bottoms to be hit. It would be nice to catch the “absolute” bottom but I’m not that good quite frankly, no one is but many are going to try. I’ll more than likely start to nibble on some “longer” term call options in the near future and I’ll tell you after I do but for now, I’m just a sideline sitter and I am happy doing just that, sitting, watching and waiting. How about you?
That’s it folks. I’m back to writing, filming and getting the courses done. It’s a labor of love and yes, I love doing it especially for you and many others who are on board as we put it all together. Rome took time to build and that’s a function we are faced with, It’s being done to teach you the “right way” and I’m serious about doing that. Anyone can pretend to be an expert but few exist in today’s market. Becoming the best you can be at anything takes time, especially if you want to trade or invest in these markets. Best to all as always and thank you for your patience.
The Rolling Stones told us years ago that “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” and truer words have seldom been spoken. Time is on your side and so am I. Learning how to be the best damn trader or investor you can possibly be takes time, Give it the time it deserves and keep reading. Get ready for the courses. From the inside out I know it will make you better. You might even start to teach me, an old dog, some new tricks. I am happy to learn them; I do it every day. How about you?