DIrect From The Horse's Mouth
Or "The Ticker's Bible" You Choose
Who the hell turned the heat off? It’s considered to be very cold here in Texas. When it comes down to it, it wold just be another winter day up north. That sums it up into a nutshell; it depends where you are and what you’re experiencing. Such is the case on the investment side as well. What’s happening today might be totally different than an event that changes things tomorrow.
Nothing has changed on this side of the world except that the world continues to get a bit smaller every day. Trump won Iowa, New Hampshire is next. Rockets are still fired into the Red Sea but from what we are told, the problem is already taken care of. What I like seeing is a third party, the “No Labels” endeavor gaining strength. Time will tell but wouldn’t it be nice to have an alternative? Let’s see what happens.
For now, since I’m just sitting back and waiting for the “market” to correct, let’s take a look into “The Ticker’s Bible”. In the following I talk about an important portion of how I think, the ‘what ifs” and “what happens’. It’s good stuff and I hope you read all of it and do your best to understand it. If not, let me know and I’ll clear it up for all of you, one person or investor at a time.
“What Ifs” & “What Happens”
This is basically a dissertation on macroeconomic and geopolitical theory. In short it is how I think and what I teach. It’s worked well for me for years and is something I do depend upon regularly.
If interest rates increase:
Exchange rates of the currency increase.
The economic output or GDP decreases.
Cost of borrowing increases.
Products and services costs tied to higher currency rates decrease.
The traded prices of investments decrease.
Inflation at the consumer and producer level decreases.
If the US Dollar decreases:
Product prices tied to the Dollar increase.
Actual economic output or GDP increases.
Inflation at the consumer and producer level increases.
The value of other currencies increase.
If CPI increases:
Product prices tied to the Dollar increase.
The traded prices of investments decrease.
Inflation at the consumer and producer level increases.
Market prices for securities decrease.
Generally:
If oil increases in price inflation rises.
If agricultural prices increase inflation rises.
If inflation rises interest rates rise.
If interest rates rise bond prices decrease.
The value of the Dollar decreases.
Easy, right? Let’s throw in a few geopolitical events in for good measure. Remember uncertainty is bad; certainty is good. Discerning the difference between the two then understanding their effects takes time but you have to start somewhere.
If unstable regimes change in oil producing countries oil prices increase.
If trade disputes between key trading partners arise stock prices decrease.
If sanctions are placed on countries their currency exchange values decrease.
If natural disasters destroy economically sensitive regions inflation increases.
That’s enough for you to get you started and remember, this is just the “beginning” of your adventure. I read or listen to something between eight and twelve hours a day. I always have something on in the background as news is reported “around the clock”. It’s best to keep your ears open and watch your indicators to see how what you read and what you hear effects them, especially what you hear.
Take it all in folks. I’m not creating, writing and publishing this information for fun. I suggest you take everything into consideration that you listen to or read. I’m only one source and there are many to read and listen to. Back to the basics of building what I started last summer, “The Ticker EDU”. It’s a labor of love and without a doubt you’re going to love everything when I’m done. When that is going to happen, who knows. I thought it was going to take a couple months but like everything else I am not always right. Consistent, yes so keep watching, listening and learning.
Nat King Cole was perhaps the best vocalist I have ever known. For certain along with the “big bands'“ his voice was heard throughout the “house” I grew up in every day so I learned at a young age what real music was. I chose his version of “Smile” for a good reason, it is easier to smile than anything else. If you cannot figure “something” out, just smile; having problems that no one can solve, smile; and above all realize, the end of the rainbow is closer than you think. So everyone, just smile, smile and smile.