Casino Alternative

Roulette's My Choice

Like clockwork, as soon as the market turns to the downside, the never ending upside seekers start talking about it being easier to make money in a Casino than trading. You know, one of our rules suggests that if you believe Casinos are a better place to earn a living you really shouldn’t be trading futures but let’s leave that discussion for another day.

Let me take you back a few years, it’s May of 1981, the last day of my first year at The Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon and Bob Redinger’s Stats I final is on my desk. The only question revolved around your being in a Monte Carlo Casino. You had to choose what game you would play, craps, black jack or roulette. I’ll save you the details; the answer was Roulette.

37-Number Monte Carlo Roulette Layout

On this board I’ve placed five chips. Four cover 4-numbers with a winning payout of 8:1. The fifth chip covers 6-numbers with a payout of 5:1, a breakeven. So in essence with these five chips I’ve covered 22 of 37 numbers or 59.5% of the table; that’s better than 50:50, not bad, eh? There’s a catch, as there always is in any Casino; you have to have a wad of cash in your pocket and be playing on a table with no limit.

With that in mind, spin the wheel. If you win on any of the 4-number chips you win; you get back eight chips. If that little silver ball lands on the 6-number bet you break even and get your 5 chips back. If you lose and the ball lands on any of the 15 numbers you have not covered you lose. If you lose you just double up. That’s right, if there is no table limit and you have a wad of cash that you can afford to lose chances are at some point before you go broke you’re going to at least break even.

One problem you’ll have, especially in Monte Carlo at a table without limits, is getting thrown out of the Casino or being comped dinner or drinks. Casinos are well aware of what winning strategies are and this is one of them. There are ways around this, like throwing a few extra chips on individual numbers after you’ve made a few bucks but that reduces the odds, unless you get lucky and you hit on a 35:1 bet, similar to how a losing futures trader executes their trading plan.

Figured today would be a good day to post something fun of this nature. I’m sure that many traders would have done better in a Casino today. Again, if that’s how you treat trading futures you’re probably right.

Hope you enjoyed this post. I’m just a young 68 years old; my Dad became a broker when I was 13. It’s time for me to ‘give back’ to all of you what’s in my head. It’s not always pretty but it’s based on history . . . and history, unchecked, repeats itself.

Everyone learns at their own pace. If you pick everything up the first time through, great but if not email me at dzimmer@substack.com so we can further help.

. . . and now one of my favorite Clint Eastwood scenes from “Dirty Harry” . . . damn he was young . . . weren’t we all.