Boring Is A Fact Of Life
Especially In The Summer
“Oh, how I hate to get up in the morning”. That’s what Irving Berlin thought in his play, “This Is The Army”. I’ve done my best to warn all you day and scalp traders out there, that it’s summer.
There’s nothing wrong with doing something else even if that something is nothing. I love doing nothing. I do “nothing” better than anything else. It is not that I’m actually doing nothing, no. I’m reading, listening, and thinking. I think about what the world is telling me. I read what others write and I think about “what’s next”.
The most important thing I do is examine what went wrong, my mistakes. Everybody makes mistakes, especially me. That’s one of the reasons I follow one of my best rules. I cut my losses short and let my winners run. That’s easy but trust me, like everyone else, I’d rather be right than wrong. I dig a little deeper and have a couple of examples to talk about. Versus “beating a dead horse” let’s take a look at a few of my failures.
Apple Didn’t Go Down Further
For the first time in years, early this year I sold my entire position in Apple above $195 a share. Looked like a pretty good move but when it hit $175 I got greedy. While I did not go short or buy put options at that time, I didn’t reestablish the position. Shame on me. It’s not easy being human but that’s what I am, boring too.
While I did not participate in the recent upside, on Friday I bought a few put options that will expire in August. Not a lot mind you as I’m uncertain of what the stock will do from here. I thought a price slightly below $200 was a good sell point and I still do. If I was running the company, there would be someone else running the company. I would have integrated AI into the platform years ago and made sure I had replaced a Chinese influence with an Indian one years ago. The handwriting’s been on the wall. I just read it again.
Today, Apple just announced:
Apple Intelligence for Mac, iPhone and iPad
OpenAI’s ChatGPT is coming to Siri
iOS 18
A big Siri update with AI
Updates for AirPods and tvOS for Apple TV
WatchOS 11 for Apple Watch with Training Load
iPadOS 18
macOS Sequoia
VisionOS 2
Apple Passwords app
Custom emoji called “Genmoji”
Buy on rumor, sell on news works again. The stock is down today despite these new announcements hitting the airwaves. Again, it’s not a big position but one I will keep my eyes on, both of them. Regardless of my investment philosophy, I’m still going to buy a new MacBookPro before long with an M2 chip. It’s time to replace the old one that’s served me well.
My Yen Is Killing Me
It’s true, my hip and my knee feel better. I find it hard to believe that the Yen has been on the weak side for as long as I can remember. In the early 1980s, we actively sourced a few manufactured products in Japan. Today, we’re sourcing even more as the Dollar goes a long way.
That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me but without interest rates coming down around the world, the “carry trade” is here to stay. I’m a little pigheaded here as I sense things are about to change but I’m running 50 / 50 on that decision. I’m looking for the Yen to strengthen sooner than not and that’s where my chips are, lots of them.
It’s Good To Be Wrong
I’m not like most of what you encounter on social media. I’m wrong from time to time and I’m happy to admit it as I’m consistent. I’m a teacher and I learn more from being wrong versus being right. Check us out at The Ticker and learn the “right way”. It’s a great time to jump on board as we introduce ourselves. In any case, we’re not always going to be right but we’ll always be consistent.
Oh, how I hate to get up . . . in the summer. Face it, summers are boring. Sure, the bid and ask quotes are thinner than not but that cuts both ways. If you are right, you can make a fortune. if you are wrong, you can lose a fortune. The problem, either way, is the word “if”. I’ll pass on if, hope, pray, wish, and think. I’ll depend upon “know” and you should too but remember, know doesn’t always work so cut your losses short “if” you are wrong. Join me at The Ticker and learn more, the “right way” and thanks for your time.